A Statistical Adjustment of Regional Climate Model Outputs to Local Scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain

被引:110
作者
Amengual, A. [1 ,2 ]
Homar, V. [1 ]
Romero, R. [1 ]
Alonso, S. [1 ,2 ]
Ramis, C. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Illes Balears, Dept Fis, Grp Meteorol, Palma de Mallorca 07122, Spain
[2] Inst Med Estudis Avancats, Dept Recerca Canvi Global, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
关键词
DAILY RAINFALL; EVENTS; PRECIPITATION; CLASSIFICATION; SIMULATIONS; RESOLUTION; INTENSITY; FREQUENCY; EXTREMES; TOURISM;
D O I
10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05024.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Projections of climate change effects for the System of Platja de Palma (SPdP) are derived using a novel statistical technique. Socioeconomic activities developed in this settlement are very closely linked to its climate. Any planning for socioeconomic opportunities in the mid- and long term must take into account the possible effects of climate change. To this aim, daily observed series of minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, and wind speed have been analyzed. For the climate projections, daily data generated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) have been used. To properly use RCM data at local scale, a quantile-quantile adjustment has been applied to the simulated regional projections. The method is based on detecting changes in the cumulative distribution functions between the recent past and successive time slices of the simulated climate and applying these, after calibration, to the recent past (observed) series. Results show an overall improvement in reproducing the present climate baseline when using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs, although the correction does not result in such clear improvement when dealing with very extreme rainfalls. Next, the corrected series are analyzed to quantify the climate change signal. An increase of the annual means for temperatures together with a decrease for the remaining variables is projected throughout the twenty-first century. Increases in weak and intense daily rainfalls and in high extremes for daily maximum temperature can also be expected. With this information at hand, the experts planning the future of SPdP can respond more effectively to the problem of local adaptation to climate change.
引用
收藏
页码:939 / 957
页数:19
相关论文
共 43 条
  • [1] Algorithm 761: Scattered-data surface fitting that has the accuracy of a cubic polynomial
    Akima, H
    [J]. ACM TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICAL SOFTWARE, 1996, 22 (03): : 362 - 371
  • [2] Akima H., 1978, ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software, V4, P148, DOI 10.1145/355780.355786
  • [3] The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values
    Alpert, P
    Ben-Gai, T
    Baharad, A
    Benjamini, Y
    Yekutieli, D
    Colacino, M
    Diodato, L
    Ramis, C
    Homar, V
    Romero, R
    Michaelides, S
    Manes, A
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2002, 29 (11) : 31 - 1
  • [4] Amelung B., 2006, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, V14, P349, DOI 10.2167/jost549.0
  • [5] Hydrometeorological ensemble simulations of flood events over a small basin of Majorca Island, Spain
    Amengual, A.
    Romero, R.
    Alonso, S.
    [J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2008, 134 (634) : 1221 - 1242
  • [6] Impact of the lateral boundary conditions resolution on dynamical downscaling of precipitation in mediterranean spain
    Amengual, A.
    Romero, R.
    Homar, V.
    Ramis, C.
    Alonso, S.
    [J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2007, 29 (05) : 487 - 499
  • [7] [Anonymous], REV ESPANOLA FISICA
  • [8] Impact of nesting strategies in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data
    Beck, A
    Ahrens, B
    Stadlbacher, K
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2004, 31 (19) : L191011 - 5
  • [9] Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies
    Boe, J.
    Terray, L.
    Habets, F.
    Martin, E.
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2007, 27 (12) : 1643 - 1655
  • [10] Climate modelling: Severe summertime flooding in Europe
    Christensen, JH
    Christensen, OB
    [J]. NATURE, 2003, 421 (6925) : 805 - 806