Estimate of uncertainties in avalanche hazard mapping

被引:19
作者
Barbolini, M
Savi, F
机构
[1] Univ Pavia, Hydraul & Environm Engn Dept, I-27100 Pavia, Italy
[2] Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dept Hydraul Transporat & Highways, I-00184 Rome, Italy
来源
ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, VOL 32, 2001 | 2001年 / 32卷
关键词
D O I
10.3189/172756401781819373
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The present work addresses the urgent demand for methods of quantifying the uncertainties inherent in the current procedures for avalanche hazard assessment. A Monte Carlo approach to hazard mapping is proposed for this purpose. This statistical sampling analysis method allows us to evaluate the probability distributions of the relevant variables for avalanche hazard assessment-essentially runout distance and impact pressure-once the release variables and the model parameters are expressed in terms of suitable probability distributions. In this way it is possible to explicitly account for uncertainties both in the input-data definition of the dynamic models and in the mapping results. The overall methodology is presented in detail and applied to a real-world avalanche mapping problem. The one-dimensional version of the VARA models is used for avalanche dynamics simulations.
引用
收藏
页码:299 / 305
页数:7
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