A simple equation for regional climate change and associated uncertainty

被引：25

作者：

Giorgi, Filippo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, I-34014 Trieste, Italy

来源：

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | 2008年 / 21卷 / 07期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1175/2007JCLI1763.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are applied to regional temperature and precipitation changes over different regions of the world, and relevant parameters are calculated using the latest multimodel ensemble of global climate change simulations. Examples are also shown of how to use the equations to develop probability density functions (PDFs) of regional climate change based on PDFs of GTC. The main advantage of these equations is that they can be used to estimate regional changes from GTC obtained either from simple and intermediate complexity models or from target CO. stabilization concentrations.

引用

页码：1589 / 1604

页数：16

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