The impact of media on the control of infectious diseases

被引：356

作者：

Cui, Jingan ^{[2
]}

Sun, Yonghong ^{[3
]}

Zhu, Huaiping ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] York Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Toronto, ON M3P 1P3, Canada

[2] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math & Comp Sci, Nanjing 210097, Peoples R China

[3] Jiangsu Inst Econ & Trade Technol, Dept Informat & Technol, Nanjing 211168, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF DYNAMICS AND DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS | 2008年 / 20卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 加拿大创新基金会;

关键词：

infectious disease; SEI model; media impact; Hopf bifurcation; multiple outbreaks;

D O I：

10.1007/s10884-007-9075-0

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

We develop a three dimensional compartmental model to investigate the impact of media coverage to the spread and control of infectious diseases (such as SARS) in a given region/area. Stability analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable if a certain threshold quantity, the basic reproduction number (R-0), is less than unity. On the other hand, if R-0>1 , it is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium appears and a Hopf bifurcation can occur which causes oscillatory phenomena. The model may have up to three positive equilibria. Numerical simulations suggest that when R-0>1 and the media impact is stronger enough, the model exhibits multiple positive equilibria which poses challenge to the prediction and control of the outbreaks of infectious diseases.

引用

页码：31 / 53

页数：23

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