Modelling of circulation and dispersion of radioactive pollutants in the Japan Sea

A large amount of radioactive waste was deposited in the Japan Sea, at a depth of about 3 000 m by the former Soviet Union. Research was carried out to determine to what extent the surface waters could be contaminated by possible leakage from the dumped containers. A three-dimensional, non-linear, baroclinic model was used to determine the circulation and pollutant dispersion. The computations were carried out in the diagnostic mode, taking into account data on winter and summer temperature and salinity distribution. Thermohaline forcing due to strong temperatures and salinity gradients is the main forcing factor influencing the bottom circulation. Wind forcing and the inflow/outflow surface currents were also taken into account. The simulated velocity fields show relatively good agreement with observed surface currents and with some measurements of bottom currents. The simulated hydrodynamic field is in visibly closer agreement with the observed surface circulation when topographic stress is taken into account. After the release of radionuclides at the sea bottom, the first very small contamination would reach the surface layers after 3 years. The maximum concentrations of about 10(-3) Bq .m(-3) would be attained after 30 years. But everywhere the predicted radionuclide concentrations would be about two orders of magnitude smaller than the background values, caused by global fallout from nuclear weapons tests. Therefore, it will be impossible to determine the effect of leakage of wastes from the dumping sites over the present background levels. (C) 2000 Ifremer/CNRS/IRD/Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS.