Where will large amounts of materials accumulated within the economy go?- A material flow analysis of construction minerals for Japan

For all countries analyzed so far, Material Flow Analysis/Accounting (MFA) studies indicate that the overall stock of materials within the economy is growing. Most are construction minerals such as asphalt, cement, sand and gravel, crushed stone, and other aggregates. In the analyses described in this paper, flows and stocks of construction minerals were estimated for Japan from the past to the future to elucidate: (1) the mechanisms by which construction minerals become waste, and (2) the future supply of and demand for recycled crushed stone. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The amounts of waste construction minerals generated have been and will be at much lower levels than the domestic demand for construction minerals. These differences might indicate consistent growth of the stock of construction minerals, which will become waste in the future. However, certain amounts of materials that we account for as stock can be interpreted already in the environment as dead stock or dissipated waste; such materials can be called "missing stock" or "dissipated stock". Capturing that missing or dissipated stock is very important because it provides information that clarifies the environmental impacts and loss of resources that these materials cause; it allows estimation of appropriate future waste generation. (2) The amount of construction minerals that are recognized as waste was estimated to increase in the future. An imbalance in the supply of and demand for recycled crushed stone will likely occur in the near future if an expected decline in future road construction is considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.