Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?

被引:203
作者
Holland, Greg J.
Webster, Peter J.
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESSL, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA
来源
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2007年 / 365卷 / 1860期
关键词
hurricanes; tropical cyclones; climate trends; regime change; global warming;
D O I
10.1098/rsta.2007.2083
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
We find that long-period variations in tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred as three relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures ( SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.78 degrees C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs, and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions of tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945 1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.
引用
收藏
页码:2695 / 2716
页数:22
相关论文
共 76 条
[1]   Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity [J].
Bell, GD ;
Chelliah, M .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (04) :590-612
[2]   Mixing politics and science in testing the hypothesis that greenhouse warming is causing a global increase in hurricane intensity [J].
Curry, J. A. ;
Webster, P. J. ;
Holland, G. J. .
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2006, 87 (08) :1025-1037
[3]   Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere [J].
Delworth, TL ;
Mann, ME .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (09) :661-676
[4]   Prediction models for annual US hurricane counts [J].
Elsner, James B. ;
Jagger, Thomas H. .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (12) :2935-2952
[5]  
Elsner JB, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2652, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2652:DSIHRU>2.0.CO
[6]  
2
[7]   Global tropical cyclone activity: Link to the North Atlantic oscillation [J].
Elsner, JB ;
Kocher, B .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2000, 27 (01) :129-132
[8]   Secular changes to the ENSO-US hurricane relationship [J].
Elsner, JB ;
Bossak, BH ;
Niu, XF .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2001, 28 (21) :4123-4126
[9]   Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J].
Emanuel, K .
NATURE, 2005, 436 (7051) :686-688
[10]  
EMANUEL KA, 1995, J ATMOS SCI, V52, P3969, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<3969:SOTCTS>2.0.CO