On the stability of church attendance patterns during a time of demographic change: 1965-1988

Demographic changes in the United States over the past 20 years (i.e., the aging of the baby boomers) should have led to an increase in church attendance. However, church attendance patterns during this period have remained relatively stable. It is suggested that this is only possible if (1) baby boomers are not attending church with greater frequency as they age; (2) age effects are being offset by period effects moving in the opposite direction (a secularization hypothesis); or (3) age effects are being offset through a process of intergenerational exchange whereby younger cohorts throughout their life course attend church less frequently than older cohorts. These three possibilities are tested using Bayesian cohort analysis and the General Social Survey data set. Results support the third explanation. The gains associated with the aging of the baby boomers appear to be primarily offset by cohort effects. Specifically, pre-WWII cohorts attend church far more frequently than post-WWII cohorts. Therefore, as members of these older cohorts die and are replaced by younger cohorts, church attendance decreases, thereby offsetting any gains in attendance associated with the shifting age structure of the U.S. population.