Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040

被引：329

作者：

Arthur, Karissa C. ^{[1
,2
]}

Calvo, Andrea ^{[3
,4
]}

Price, T. Ryan ^{[5
]}

Geiger, Joshua T. ^{[6
]}

Chio, Adriano ^{[3
,4
]}

Traynor, Bryan J. ^{[1
,7
]}

机构：

[1] NIA, Neuromuscular Dis Res Sect, Neurogenet Lab, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[2] Commonwealth Med Coll, Scranton, PA 18509 USA

[3] Univ Turin, Rita Levi Montalcini Dept Neurosci, I-10124 Turin, Italy

[4] Neurosci Inst Torino, I-10124 Turin, Italy

[5] NIA, Stat Genet Grp, Neurogenet Lab, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[6] NINDS, Neurodegenerat Dis Res Unit, Neurogenet Lab, NIH, Bldg 36,Rm 4D04, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[7] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Neurol, Brain Sci Inst, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2016年 / 7卷

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

MOTOR-NEURON DISEASE; EPIDEMIOLOGY; ALS; PREVALENCE;

D O I：

10.1038/ncomms12408

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

Although amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, the socioeconomic significance of the disease is extensive. It is therefore vital to project the epidemiologic trend of ALS. To date, there have been few published studies attempting to estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases in the upcoming years. Here we show that the number of ALS cases across the globe will increase from 222,801 in 2015 to 376,674 in 2040, representing an increase of 69%. This increase is predominantly due to ageing of the population, particularly among developing nations. This projection is likely an underestimate due to improving healthcare and economic conditions. The results should be used to inform healthcare policy to more efficiently allocate healthcare resources.

引用

页数：6

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