Academic Labor Markets and Assistant Professors' Employment Outcomes

Using data for 638 assistant professors who joined graduate sociology departments between 1975 and 1992, I examine the claim that when the labor market for new doctorates is weak, assistant professors experience less favorable employment outcomes than when that labor market is strong. Surprisingly, I find that those hired during the weak sociological labor market during the early to late 1980s had more favorable employment outcomes than those hired before or after that period. I also find that those hired during the weak labor market years had higher average journal publication rates than those hired before or after. I interpret these patterns as showing that those hired during a weak labor market are likely to turn in better academic performances during their probationary periods than those hired during stronger labor markets. These results imply that it is difficult to test the labor market model of employment outcomes, and can explain why earlier studies have generally found little support for it.