PROBAST: A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies

被引：1690

作者：

Wolff, Robert F. ^{[1
]}

Moons, Karel G. M. ^{[2
,3
]}

Riley, Richard D. ^{[4
,13
]}

Whiting, Penny F. ^{[5
,6
,10
,14
,15
]}

Westwood, Marie ^{[1
]}

Collins, Gary S. ^{[7
,11
,16
]}

Reitsma, Johannes B. ^{[2
,3
]}

Kleijnen, Jos ^{[1
,8
]}

Mallett, Sue ^{[9
,12
]}

Altman, Doug ^{[16
]}

Bossuyt, Patrick ^{[17
]}

Cook, Nancy R. ^{[18
]}

D'Amico, Gennaro ^{[19
]}

Debray, Thomas P. A. ^{[2
]}

Deeks, Jon ^{[20
]}

de Groot, Joris ^{[21
]}

di Angelantonio, Emanuele ^{[22
]}

Fahey, Tom ^{[23
]}

Harrell, Frank ^{[24
]}

Hayden, Jill A. ^{[25
]}

Heymans, Martijn W. ^{[26
]}

Hooft, Lotty ^{[2
,3
]}

Hyde, Chris ^{[27
]}

Ioannidis, John ^{[28
]}

Iorio, Alfonso ^{[29
]}

Kaptoge, Stephen ^{[22
]}

Knottnerus, Andre ^{[30
]}

Leeflang, Mariska ^{[31
]}

Nixon, Frances ^{[32
]}

Perel, Pablo ^{[33
]}

Phillips, Bob ^{[34
]}

Raatz, Heike ^{[1
]}

Riemsma, Rob ^{[1
]}

Rovers, Maroeska ^{[35
,36
]}

Rutjes, Anne W. S. ^{[37
,38
]}

Sauerbrei, Willi ^{[39
,40
]}

Sauerland, Stefan ^{[41
]}

Scheibler, Fueloep ^{[42
]}

Scholten, Rob ^{[2
,3
]}

Schuit, Ewoud ^{[2
,3
]}

Steyerberg, Ewout ^{[43
,44
]}

Tan, Toni ^{[32
]}

ter Riet, Gerben ^{[45
]}

van der Windt, Danielle ^{[46
]}

Vergouwe, Yvonne ^{[43
]}

Vickers, Andrew ^{[47
]}

Wood, Angela M. ^{[22
]}

机构：

[1] Kleijnen Systemat Reviews Ltd, Unit 6,Escrick Business Pk,Riccall Rd, York YO19 6FD, N Yorkshire, England

[2] Univ Utrecht, Univ Med Ctr Utrecht, Julius Ctr Hlth Sci & Primary Care, POB 85500, NL-3508 GA Utrecht, Netherlands

[3] Univ Utrecht, Univ Med Ctr Utrecht, Cochrane Netherlands, Utrecht, Netherlands

[4] Keele Univ, Res Inst Primary Care & Hlth Sci, Ctr Prognosis Res, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs, England

[5] Univ Bristol, Sch Med, Bristol, Avon, England

[6] Univ Hosp Bristol Natl Hlth Serv Fdn Trust, Natl Inst Hlth Res Collaborat Leadership Appl Hlt, Bristol BS1 2NT, Avon, England

[7] Univ Oxford, Ctr Stat Med, Oxford, England

[8] Maastricht Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Maastricht, Netherlands

[9] Univ Birmingham, Coll Med & Dent Sci, Natl Inst Hlth Res Birmingham Biomed Res Ctr, Inst Appl Hlth Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England

[10] Univ Bristol, Sch Social & Community Med, Bristol BS1 2NT, Avon, England

[11] Univ Oxford, Botnar Res Ctr, NDORMS, Ctr Stat Med, Windmill Rd, Oxford OX3 7LD, England

[12] Univ Birmingham, Inst Appl Hlth Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England

[13] Keele Univ, Keele, Staffs, England

[14] Univ Hosp Bristol NHS Fdn Trust, Bristol, Avon, England

[15] Univ Bristol, Bristol, Avon, England

[16] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Orthopaed Rheumatol & Musculoskelet, Ctr Stat Med, Oxford, England

[17] Univ Amsterdam, Div Clin Methods & Publ Hlth, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[18] Brigham & Womens Hosp, 75 Francis St, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[19] Osped Vincenzo Cervello, Palermo, Italy

[20] Univ Birmingham, Inst Appl Hlth Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England

[21] Philips Image Guided Therapy Syst, Best, Netherlands

[22] Univ Cambridge, Dept Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Cambridge, England

[23] Royal Coll Surgeons Ireland, Dublin, Ireland

[24] Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Biostat, 221 Kirkland Hall, Nashville, TN 37235 USA

[25] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Community Hlth & Epidemiol, Halifax, NS, Canada

[26] Vrije Univ UMC, Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[27] Univ Exeter, Sch Med, Inst Hlth Res, Exeter, Devon, England

[28] Stanford Univ, Meta Res Innovat Ctr Stanford, Palo Alto, CA 94304 USA

[29] McMaster Univ, Dept Hlth Res Methods Evidence & Impact, Hamilton, ON, Canada

[30] Maastricht Univ, Dept Family Med, Maastricht, Netherlands

[31] Univ Amsterdam, Dept Clin Epidemiol Biostat & Bioinformat, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[32] Natl Inst Hlth & Care Excellence, Manchester, Lancs, England

[33] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Global Chron Condit, London, England

[34] Ctr Reviews & Disseminat, York, N Yorkshire, England

[35] Radboud UMC, Dept Operating Rooms, Nijmegen, Netherlands

[36] Radboud UMC, Dept Hlth Evidence, Nijmegen, Netherlands

[37] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland

[38] Univ Bern, Inst Primary Hlth Care, Bern, Switzerland

[39] Univ Freiburg, Fac Med, Inst Med Biometry & Stat, Freiburg, Germany

[40] Univ Freiburg, Med Ctr, Freiburg, Germany

[41] Inst Qual & Efficiency Healthcare, Cologne, Germany

[42] UMC Schleswig Holstein, Kiel, Germany

[43] Erasmus UMC, Dept Publ Hlth, Rotterdam, Netherlands

[44] Leiden UMC, Dept Biomed Data Sci, Leiden, Netherlands

[45] Univ Amsterdam, Dept Gen Practice, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[46] Keele Univ, Ctr Prognosis Res, Keele, Staffs, England

[47] Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, 1275 York Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA

来源：

ANNALS OF INTERNAL MEDICINE | 2019年 / 170卷 / 01期

关键词：

INDIVIDUAL PROGNOSIS; DIAGNOSIS TRIPOD; EXPLANATION;

D O I：

10.7326/M18-1376

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

100201 [内科学];

摘要：

Clinical prediction models combine multiple predictors to estimate risk for the presence of a particular condition (diagnostic models) or the occurrence of a certain event in the future (prognostic models). PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool), a tool for assessing the risk of bias (ROB) and applicability of diagnostic and prognostic prediction model studies, was developed by a steering group that considered existing ROB tools and reporting guidelines. The tool was informed by a Delphi procedure involving 38 experts and was refined through piloting. PROBAST is organized into the following 4 domains: participants, predictors, outcome, and analysis. These domains contain a total of 20 signaling questions to facilitate structured judgment of ROB, which was defined to occur when shortcomings in study design, conduct, or analysis lead to systematically distorted estimates of model predictive performance. PROBAST enables a focused and transparent approach to assessing the ROB and applicability of studies that develop, validate, or update prediction models for individualized predictions. Although PROBAST was designed for systematic reviews, it can be used more generally in critical appraisal of prediction model studies. Potential users include organizations supporting decision making, researchers and clinicians who are interested in evidence-based medicine or involved in guideline development, journal editors, and manuscript reviewers.

引用

页码：51 / +

页数：10

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