Examining the effects of transport policy on modal shift from private car to public bus

Private vehicles have become the most common mode of daily travel. This is one effect of the poor accessibility of public transportation. This paper attempts to use a study based on a survey of commuters in order to devise ways of encouraging the use of public transportation. Two different public transport policies were examined: (i) once-an-hour direct bus service from home to university (policy 1), and (ii) park-and-ride facilities (policy 2). Binary logistics models are proposed with the intention of comparing the utility of travel modes between private cars and public buses. These models are also used to identify the factors which have the potential to encourage car users to switch from travelling by cars to public buses. Explanatory factors considered in all three models include: occupation, trip length, travel time, trip frequency, gender, age and possession of a license. We began from the basic scenario by focusing on existing services without considering any new policy. The consequences of two new policies were then analysed in order to identify those factors which influence the choice of travel mode and which can predict the probability of behavioural change. All the proposed logistics models are evaluated using real-world data (with 4410 samples) from a survey carried out at the University of Wollongong (UOW), Australia. Stated preference (SP) questionnaires were used to collect relevant information on the choice of travel mode. Based on the proposed models, findings identify a hierarchy of importance of relevant factors which could assist decision makers to design and implement more successful future transport service(s). (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.