Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

被引:139
作者
Zhu, Xinxin [1 ]
Genton, Marc G. [1 ]
机构
[1] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Stat, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Evaluation; forecasting; loss function; ramp event; space-time model; statistical model; time series model; wind speed; wind power; TIME-SERIES MODELS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PREDICTION; ENERGY; GENERATION; SIMULATE;
D O I
10.1111/j.1751-5823.2011.00168.x
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.
引用
收藏
页码:2 / 23
页数:22
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