The evolution of climate over the last millennium

被引:431
作者
Jones, PD [1 ]
Osborn, TJ [1 ]
Briffa, KR [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
关键词
D O I
10.1126/science.1059126
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features-El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-over much of the Last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the Last three decades were Likely the warmest of the Last millennium, about 0.2 degreesC warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6 degreesC per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.
引用
收藏
页码:662 / 667
页数:6
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