Modeling the fate of copper discharged to San Francisco Bay

An existing two-dimensional estuary model was modified to incorporate processes important to the transport and fate of copper in San Francisco Bay. These processes include advection, dispersion, partitioning with suspended particles, settling, and resuspension of adsorbed copper. A systematic calibration of these processes was made. The simulated advection was first shown to match tidal stages, time lag of slack waters, and currents. The model's dispersion was then calibrated by matching observed total dissolved solids. Finally, the model was calibrated to match total suspended solids, total copper, dissolved copper, and sediment copper. The model simulated the recently observed copper concentration in the bay under current point and nonpoint source loadings. The model predicted that a reduction of copper load in winter storm-water runoff would lower copper concentration in the summer.