Predicting stroke recovery: Three- and six-month rates of patient-centered functional outcomes based on the Orpington Prognostic Scale

OBJECTIVE: To provide recovery rates after stroke for specific functions using the Orpington Prognostic Scale (OPS). DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING: Hospital and community. PARTICIPANTS: 413 stroke survivors entered the study 3 to 14 days after suffering a stroke. MEASUREMENTS: A cohort of hospitalized stroke survivors were recruited 3 to 14 days after stroke and assessed at 1, 3, and 6 months poststroke for neurological, functional, and health status. Baseline OPS score was used to predict five functional outcomes at 3 and 6 months using development and validation datasets and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: In 413 stroke survivors, functional recovery rates at 3 and 6 months were similar. Baseline OPS predicted significant differences in recovery rates for all five outcomes (P < .0001 for all five outcomes at 3 and 6 months). Personal care dependence was present at 3 months in only 3% of persons with baseline OPS scores of 3.2 or less compared with over 50% with OPS of 4.8 or higher. Independent personal care, meal preparation, and self-administration of medication were achieved by 80% who had baseline OPS scores of 2.4 or lower compared with less than 20% when OPS scores were 4.4 or higher. Independent community mobility was achieved in 50% of those who had OPS scores of 2.4 or lower but only 3% of those with OPS scores of 4.4 or higher. The area under ROC curves assessing OPS scores against each of the five outcomes ranged from 0.805 to 0.863 at 3 months and 0.74 to 0.806 at 6 months. CONCLUSION: OPS scores can predict widely differing rates of functional recovery in five important functional abilities. These estimates can be useful to survivors, families, providers, and healthcare systems who need to plan for the future.