Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change? art. no. L15707

The stability of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated by means of a box model of the tropical atmosphere. At the heart of this model is the moisture-advection feedback which allows for the existence of two stable regimes: besides the "wet'' summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by low precipitation. The model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative systems behavior in response to changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcations against changes in those quantities which govern the heat balance of the system, i.e., the planetary albedo, the insolation, and the CO2 concentration. These findings are remarkable insofar as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo, such as sulphur emissions and/or land-use changes, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentration could trigger abrupt transitions between different monsoon regimes.