The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe

被引：1302

作者：

Barriopedro, David ^{[1
]}

Fischer, Erich M. ^{[2
]}

Luterbacher, Juerg ^{[3
]}

Trigo, RicardoM. ^{[1
]}

Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Lisbon, Inst Dom Luiz, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[3] Univ Giessen, Dept Geog, D-35390 Giessen, Germany

[4] Agencia Estatal Meteorol AEMET, Madrid 28071, Spain

来源：

SCIENCE | 2011年 / 332卷 / 6026期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; VARIABILITY; REANALYSIS; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1201224

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events likely broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing mega-heatwaves will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the likelihood of an analog over the same region remains fairly low until the second half of the 21st century.

引用

页码：220 / 224

页数：5

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