MISCAN: estimating lead-time and over-detection by simulation

被引：19

作者：

Draisma, G ^{[1
]}

De Koning, HJ ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Dept Publ Hlth, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands

来源：

BJU INTERNATIONAL | 2003年 / 92卷

关键词：

D O I：

10.1111/j.1464-410X.2003.4409x.x

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学]; R69 [泌尿科学（泌尿生殖系疾病）];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Objective To estimate the mean lead-time and rate of over-detection associated with screening for prostate cancer with prostate-specific antigen. Methods Simulation models, fitted to the results of the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, were used to predict the mean lead-time and over-detection rate in population-based Screening programmes. Results The mean lead-time is estimated to be 11-12 years and over-detection to occur in half the cases found by population screening. The estimates are compared with published estimates. Conclusion The effect of lead-time and over-detection on the balance of positive and negative consequences of screening cannot be neglected.

引用

页码：106 / 111

页数：6

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