Analysing the effects of soil properties changes associated with land use changes on the simulated water balance:: A comparison of three hydrological catchment models for scenario analysis

This paper presents results of a model comparison study within the LUCHEM framework ('assessing the impact of Land Use Change on Hydrology by Ensemble Modelling') where the effects of land use change on catchment water balances were assessed with various hydrological catchment models. The motivation for this part of LUCHEM is that it is well known that land use changes may induce changes in soil chemical and soil physical properties (e.g. bulk density). Unfortunately the effects of land use change on soil hydraulic properties are seldom investigated directly, but some information on changes in bulk density is available. Changes in bulk density can be used as input for pedotransfer functions to derive changes in soil hydraulic model parameters. In this study, three different catchment models (SWAT, TOPLATS, WASIM) are compared with respect to their sensitivity to land use change with and without consideration of associated changes in soil parameterisation. The results reveal that different models show a different sensitivity to the change in soil parameterisation while the magnitude of absolute changes in simulated evapotranspiration and discharge is similar. SWAT calculates largest changes in the water balance in a German mesoscale catchment. TOPLATS also shows significant changes in the calculated catchment water balances as well as in the runoff generation while WASIM reacts least sensitive. While TOPLATS and WASIM show similar patterns with respect to changes in the water flows for all subcatchments and land use scenarios, SWAT results are similar for the different catchments, but show scenario specific patterns. In relation to the magnitude of the effects on simulated water flows induced by land use change, the significance of considering soil change effects depends on both, the scenario definition and on the model sensitivity to soil parameterisation. For two of the three land use scenarios representing an intensified land use, SWAT and TOPLATS simulate water balance changes in the same order of magnitude due to both, land use and soil property changes. Therefore, a consideration of changes in soil properties as part of land use change scenario analysis is recommended. Future field work needs to aim at the validation of the assumed dependency of soil hydrologic properties on land use change. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.