Modelling prehistoric land use and carbon budgets: A critical review

被引：28

作者：

Boyle, John F. ^{[1
]}

Gaillard, Marie-Jose ^{[2
]}

Kaplan, Jed O. ^{[3
]}

Dearing, John A. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England

[2] Linnaeus Univ, Vaxjo, Sweden

[3] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

[4] Univ Southampton, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England

来源：

HOLOCENE | 2011年 / 21卷 / 05期

关键词：

anthropogenic land-cover scenarios; carbon budget; Holocene; past global population; prehistoric land use; Ruddiman hypothesis; POLLEN DATA; POPULATION; CYCLE; CO2; CLIMATE; COVER; ICE;

D O I：

10.1177/0959683610386984

中图分类号：

P9 [自然地理学];

学科分类号：

0705 ; 070501 ;

摘要：

An evaluation of modelled estimates for C release following early land clearance at the global level based on new model assumptions suggests that earlier studies may have underestimated its magnitude, chiefly because of underestimation of the mid-Holocene global population. Alternative information sources for population and land utilisation support both a greater total CO2 release and a greater Neolithic contribution. Indeed, we show that the quantity of terrestrial C release due to early farming, even using the most conservative assumptions, greatly exceeds the net terrestrial C release estimated by inverse modelling of ice core data by Elsig et al. (Elsig J, Schmitt J, Leuenberger D, Schneider R, Eyer M, Leuenberger M et al. ( 2009) Stable isotope constraints on Holocene carbon cycle changes from an Antarctic ice core. Nature 461: 507-510), though uncertainty about past global population estimates precludes calculation of a precise value.

引用

页码：715 / 722

页数：8

共 34 条

[1]

Boserup E., 1965, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure, DOI DOI 10.4324/9781315131450

[2] Did humankind prevent a Holocene glaciation? [J].

Claussen, M ;

Brovkin, V ;

Calov, R ;

Ganopolski, A ;

Kubatzki, C .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2005, 69 (2-3) :409-417

[3] HISTORY OF HUMAN POPULATION [J].

COALE, AJ .

SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, 1974, 231 (03) :40-51

[4]

DEEVEY ES, 1960, SCI AM, V203, P195

[5] HISTORICAL ESTIMATES OF WORLD-POPULATION - EVALUATION [J].

DURAND, JD .

POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, 1977, 3 (03) :253-296

[6] Stable isotope constraints on Holocene carbon cycle changes from an Antarctic ice core [J].

Elsig, Joachim ;

Schmitt, Jochen ;

Leuenberger, Daiana ;

Schneider, Robert ;

Eyer, Marc ;

Leuenberger, Markus ;

Joos, Fortunat ;

Fischer, Hubertus ;

Stocker, Thomas F. .

NATURE, 2009, 461 (7263) :507-510

[7] Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks [J].

Gaillard, M. -J. ;

Sugita, S. ;

Mazier, F. ;

Trondman, A. -K. ;

Brostrom, A. ;

Hickler, T. ;

Kaplan, J. O. ;

Kjellstrom, E. ;

Kokfelt, U. ;

Kunes, P. ;

Lemmen, C. ;

Miller, P. ;

Olofsson, J. ;

Poska, A. ;

Rundgren, M. ;

Smith, B. ;

Strandberg, G. ;

Fyfe, R. ;

Nielsen, A. B. ;

Alenius, T. ;

Balakauskas, L. ;

Barnekow, L. ;

Birks, H. J. B. ;

Bjune, A. ;

Bjorkman, L. ;

Giesecke, T. ;

Hjelle, K. ;

Kalnina, L. ;

Kangur, M. ;

van der Knaap, W. O. ;

Koff, T. ;

Lageras, P. ;

Latalowa, M. ;

Leydet, M. ;

Lechterbeck, J. ;

Lindbladh, M. ;

Odgaard, B. ;

Peglar, S. ;

Segerstrom, U. ;

von Stedingk, H. ;

Seppa, H. .

CLIMATE OF THE PAST, 2010, 6 (04) :483-499

[8]

Gaillard MJ, 2008, VEG HIST ARCHAEOBOT, V17, P415, DOI [10.1007/s00334-008-0169-3, 10.1007/s00334-008-0170-x]

[9] Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1 [J].

Goldewijk, Kees Klein ;

Beusen, Arthur ;

Janssen, Peter .

HOLOCENE, 2010, 20 (04) :565-573

[10] Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database [J].

Goldewijk, KK .

GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, 2001, 15 (02) :417-433

← 1 2 3 4 →