Long-term changes to river regimes prior to late Holocene coseismic faulting, Canterbury, New Zealand

Two sites are described from range front faults along the foothills of the Southern Alps of New Zealand, where apparently a period of 200-300 years of accelerated river incision preceded late Holocene coseismic ruptures, each probably in excess of M-w 7.5. They relate to separate fault segments and seismic events on a transpressive system associated with fault-driven folding, but both show similar evidence of off-plane aseismic deformation during the downcutting phase. The incision history is documented by the ages, relative elevations and profiles of degradation terraces. The surface dating is largely based on the weathering rind technique of McSaveney (McSaveney, M.J., 1992. A Manual for Weathering-rind Dating of Grey Sandstones of the Torlesse Supergroup, New Zealand. 92/4, Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences), supported by some consistent radiocarbon ages. On the Porters Pass Fault, drainage from Red Lakes has incised up to 12 in into late Pleistocene recessional outwash, but the oldest degradation terrace surface T-I is dated at only 690+/-50 years BP. The upper terraces T-I and T-II converge uniformly downstream right across the fault trace, but by T-III the terrace has a reversed gradient upstream. T-I, and T-III break into multiple small terraces on the hanging wall only, close to the fault trace. Continued backtilting during incision caused T-IV to diverge downstream relative to the older surfaces. Coseismic faulting displaced T-V and all the older terraces by a metre high reverse scarp and an uncertain right lateral component. This event cannot be younger than a nearby ca. 500 year old rock avalanche covering the trace. The second site in the middle reaches of the Waipara River valley involves the interaction of four faults associated with the Doctors Anticline. The main river and tributaries have incised steeply into a 2000 year old mid-Holocene, broad, degradation surface downcutting as much as 55 in. Beginning approximately 600 years ago accelerating incision eventually attained rates in excess of 100 mm/year in those reaches closely associated with the Doctors Anticline and related thrust and transfer faults. All four faults ruptured, either synchronously or sequentially, between 250 and 400 years ago when the river was close to 8 in above its present bed. Better cross-method checks on dating would eliminate some uncertainties, but the apparent similarities suggest a pattern of precursor events initiated by a period of base level drop extending for several kilometres across the structure, presumably in response to general uplift. Over time, deformation is concentrated close to the fault zone causing tilting of degradation terraces, and demonstrably in the Waipara case at least, coseismic rupture is preceded by marked acceleration of the downcutting rate. Overall base level drop is an order of magnitude greater than the throw on the eventual fault scarp. The Ostler Fault (Van Dissen et al., 1993) demonstrates that current deformation is taking place on similar thrust-fault driven folding in the Southern Alps. Regular re-levelling since 1966 has shown uplift rates of 1.0-1.5 mm/year at the crest of a 1-2 km half wave length anticline, but this case also illustrates the general problem of interpreting the significance of rates derived from geophysical monitoring relative to the long term seismic cycle. If the geomorphic signals described can be shown to hold for other examples, then criteria for targeting faults approaching the end of the seismic cycle in some tectonic settings may be possible.