Disaggregation of annual flow data with multiplicative trends

Various methods based on smoothing or statistical criteria have been used for constructing disaggregated values compatible with observed annual totals. The present method is based on a time-series model in a state space form and allows for a prescribed multiplicative trend. It is applied to US GNP data which have been used for comparing methods suggested for this purpose. The model can be extended to include quarterly series, related to the unknown disaggregated values. But as the estimation criteria are based on prediction errors of the aggregated values, the estimated form may not be optimal for reproducing high-frequency variations of the disaggregated values. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.