THE GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL LAND IN 2050: A PERFECT STORM IN THE MAKING?

The number of people which the world must feed is expected to increase by another 50% during the first half of this century. Finally, agriculture and forestry are likely to be the economic sectors whose productivity is most sharply affected by climate change. They begin by plotting population against hectares of cropland in 1900 and observe that areas with high population also had larger cropland areas, with the global average cropland area equaling 0.76 ha/capita. The model has one global production function which combines agricultural land with variable inputs to produce agricultural output. Recently there has been a surge of interest in Payments for Environmental Services (PES) by those seeking to preserve biodiversity and terrestrial carbon stocks. There is little doubt that the demand for such environmental services will grow over time, and this is likely to prove contentious in particular regions.