Seasonal prediction of monsoon rainfall in three Asian river basins: the importance of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau

被引:38
作者
Immerzeel, W. W. [1 ,2 ]
Bierkens, M. F. P. [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] FutureWater, NL-6702 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
[2] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands
[3] Deltares, Utrecht, Netherlands
关键词
monsoon; ENSO; NAO; snow; TRMM; Tibetan Plateau; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; EL-NINO; ENSO; VARIABILITY; CIRCULATION; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATIONS; ATLANTIC; DEPTH;
D O I
10.1002/joc.2033
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Empirical and numerical studies aiming at predicting inter-annual monsoon variability have thus far shown limited predictive capability. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit seasonal prediction methodology for south-west Asian monsoon (SWM) rainfall in the river basins of the Indus. Brahmaputra and Ganges, using multiple regression linear models in combination with satellite-derived snow cover. We show that the use of recent time series of remotely sensed snow cover, in combination with indices of global ocean and atmospheric modes (ENSO, NAO), can predict average monsoon precipitation with reasonable accuracy and with greater accuracy in specific regions. Maps of the relative contribution of predictor variables to the regression model show that the spring snow cover on the Tibetan plateau is the most important predictor of monsoon precipitation, especially in inland regions. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
引用
收藏
页码:1835 / 1842
页数:8
相关论文
共 55 条
[1]  
Annamalai H, 2007, J CLIMATE, V20, P1071, DOI [10.1175/JCLI4035.1, 10.1175/JCL14035.1]
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2006, ASIAN MONSOON
[3]  
Bamzai AS, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3117, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3117:RBESCS>2.0.CO
[4]  
2
[5]  
BARNETT TP, 1989, J ATMOS SCI, V46, P661, DOI 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<0661:TEOESC>2.0.CO
[6]  
2
[7]  
BLANFORD HF, 1884, P ROY SOC LONDON, V37, P1
[8]   Monitoring snow-cover dynamics in Northern Fennoscandia with SPOT VEGETATION images [J].
Dankers, R ;
De Jong, SM .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING, 2004, 25 (15) :2933-2949
[9]   Simulation of Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall using RegCM3 [J].
Dash, S. K. ;
Shekhar, M. S. ;
Singh, G. P. .
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2006, 86 (1-4) :161-172
[10]  
DelSole T, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3645, DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3645:LPOIMR>2.0.CO