World continental modeling for water resources using system dynamics

被引：17

作者：

Kojiri, Toshiharu ^{[1
]}

Hori, Tomoharu ^{[2
]}

Nakatsuka, Junpei ^{[3
]}

Chong, Teng-Sheng ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto 6110011, Japan

[2] Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Global Environm Studies, Sakyo Ku, Kyoto 6068501, Japan

[3] Nippon Koei Co Ltd, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1028539, Japan

[4] Singapore Minist Def, BLK353, Singapore, Singapore

来源：

PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH | 2008年 / 33卷 / 05期

关键词：

continental model; system dynamics; trade and migration; GCM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.pce.2008.02.005

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

This research assesses the severity of future water scarcity and its impact on the growth of human civilization through system dynamics modeling of the world at regional level. Six sectors of activities are modeled in each continent to represent the human society. Continental interactions such as migration and trade are also modeled to express the synergy of activities among the various continents. Results of the model simulations from 1960 to 2100 show that water scarcity, unlike other limitations such as nonrenewable resources and persistent pollution, gives severe, detrimental problems within short delays after its occurrence. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：304 / 311

页数：8

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