Trajectory-based change detection for automated characterization of forest disturbance dynamics

Satellite sensors are well suited to monitoring changes on the Earth's surface through provision of consistent and repeatable measurements at a spatial scale appropriate for many processes causing change on the land surface. Here, we describe and test a new conceptual approach to change detection of forests using a dense temporal stack of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery. The central premise of the method is the recognition that many phenomena associated with changes in land cover have distinctive temporal progressions both before and after the change event, and that these lead to characteristic temporal signatures in spectral space. Rather than search for single change events between two dates of imagery, we instead search for these idealized signatures in the entire temporal trajectory of spectral values. This trajectory-based change detection is automated, requires no screening of non-forest area, and requires no metric-specific threshold development. Moreover, the method simultaneously provides estimates of discontinuous phenomena (disturbance date and intensity) as well as continuous phenomena (post-disturbance regeneration). We applied the method to a stack of 18 Landsat TM images for the 20-year period from 1984 to 2004. When compared with direct interpreter delineation of disturbance events, the automated method accurately labeled year of disturbance with 90% overall accuracy in clear-cuts and with 77% accuracy in partial-cuts (thinnings). The primary source of error in the method was misregistration of images in the stack, suggesting that higher accuracies are possible with better registration. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.