A new approach to the estimation of the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions

This paper presents a new methodology for estimating the probable number of fatalities in accidental explosions in fixed installations, as a function of the amount of the flammable substance involved. A review of the procedure proposed by Marshall (1977) (Marshall, V.C., 1977 How lethal are explosions and toxic escapes? The Chemical Engineer, August 1977, 573-577). reveals its limitations, given the great dispersion of ungrouped data. The proposed alternative enables the estimation of the maximum probable number of fatalities and the percentage of cases in which a certain number of fatalities is reached, based on the knowledge of the amount of material presumably involved and through the application of the historical analysis of accidents. It must be pointed out that the proposed method considers not only fatalities derived directly from the overpressure wave but also those due to thermal radiation or missile impact. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.