Current value of historical and ongoing surveillance for disease freedom: Surveillance for bovine Johne's disease in Western Australia

'Confidence' in freedom from disease is generally derived from multiple sources of varied surveillance information, and typically this surveillance evidence has been accumulated over time. In the state of Western Australia (WA) the main surveillance evidence supporting Free Zone status in the national bovine Johne's disease (BJD) program comprises periodic surveys and the ongoing clinical diagnostic system. This paper illustrates a simple approach to current valuation of historical surveillance information, based on the calculated sensitivity of the surveillance processes, the time elapsed since the data were accumulated, and the probability of new introduction of disease into the population during that elapsed time. Surveillance system components (SSCs) contributing to the overall sensitivity of the surveillance system were the clinical diagnostic system and periodic targeted surveys. Sensitivity of each component was estimated using a stochastic scenario tree model of the surveillance process as implemented. Probability of introduction of BJD into WA during each time period was estimated retrospectively from a stochastic import risk analysis model applied to actual cattle importation data. The probability that the WA cattle population was free from infection (at design prevalences of 0.2% of herds and 2% of animals within an infected herd) was estimated following each of 11 years, giving a median probability that the State was free of BJD (at these design prevalences) at the end of 2005 of 0.89. The meaning of this result is discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.