Novel grey model for the prediction of trend of dissolved gases in oil-filled power apparatus

The power transformer is a major apparatus in a power system; it is of great importance to detect incipient failures in power transformers as early as possible in order to minimize system outage. In this paper, the modified grey model was applied to predict the oil-dissolved gas trend of power transformers. Then, the future fault of power transformer can directly be identified by the trend analysis, so that we can switch them off safely and improve the reliability of power systems. To verify the proposed approach, 46 sets of power transformer records in Taiwan have been tested. It is shown that the proposed method is simple and efficient. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.