US and Canadian industrial production indices as coupled oscillators

This paper uses Ozaki's (1985) variable amplitude coefficient model to explore the impact of different types of dynamical linkages (coupling) between the indices of industrial production for the U.S. and Canada. Empirical analysis reveals that for each country, the requisite lag structure extends for up to six years, and that the coupling linkages are functions of lagged changes in growth rates. Incorporating these linkages leads to an increased degree of oscillation in the equilibrium paths, a marginal improvement in stability, and somewhat greater synchronization between the two series. The out-of-sample forecasts for each series are improved by the coupling. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.