Probabilistic Wind Energy Modeling in Electric Generation System Reliability Assessment

Power grid reliability impacts could be significant when a large amount of variable wind generation is integrated with the electric power system. The widely used deterministic reliability assessment method is invalid when modeling the intermittency of wind energy sources. The energy-based probabilistic reliability assessment models are required in system reliability impact assessment in order to consider the stochastic characteristic of wind resources. This paper investigates different stochastic characteristics in wind energy integration, including resource availability, generation facility outage, and transmission availability. A probabilistic framework of reliability modeling for renewable resource integration such as wind energy conversion system is proposed in this paper. Using the proposed reliability models and framework, the cost of wind energy integration with the power grid for maintaining system adequacy and reliability can be evaluated realistically. The IEEE Reliability Test System is utilized to demonstrate the developed models and methods. The methodology can be used for modeling the reliability of industrial and commercial facilities being serviced by wind farms and transmission lines.