Cohort survival patterns of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in Shelikof Strait, Alaska: A critical factor analysis

A series of age-specific life tables for walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the western Gulf of Alaska was compiled for the 1980-91 year classes. The life tables were utilized to perform an exploratory key factor analysis to examine the timing of critical periods in the recruitment process, evidence of density-dependence at different stages and trends in mortality rates. Early larval mortality was significantly correlated with generational mortality (In recruits/spawning biomass), but patterns in juvenile mortality also were similar to generational mortality and in some years were clearly dominant in determining the fate of a cohort. Density-dependent mortality, based on the correlation between mortality and initial abundance, was indicated only for the late larval to early juvenile stage. Time trends were marginally significant for juvenile mortality. It is speculated that the observed increase in juvenile mortality is associated with increasing abundance of arrowtooth flounder. Weaknesses in the data base are discussed; these along with the short time series involved make our conclusions tentative and subject to further study. We hypothesize that pollock recruitment levels can be established at any life stage depending on sufficient supply from prior stages, a type of dynamics which can be termed supply dependent multiple life stage control.