Economic growth and emissions: reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental Kuznets curves

Recent empirical research indicates that certain types of emissions follow an inverted-U or environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) as income grows. This regularity has been interpreted as a possible de-linking of economic growth and patterns of certain pollutants for developed economies. In this paper the empirical basis of this result is investigated by considering some statistical particularities of the various EKC studies performed. It is argued that the inverted-U relationship between income and emissions estimated from panel data need not hold for specific individual countries over time. Based on insights from 'intensity-of-use' analysis in resource economics, an alternative growth model is specified and estimated for three types of emissions (CO2, NOx and SO2) in four countries (Netherlands, UK, USA and Western Germany). It is found that the time patterns of these emissions correlate positively with economic growth and that emission reductions may have been achieved as a result of structural and technological changes in the economy. 'Sustainable growth' is defined as the rate of economic growth that does not lead to growth in emissions. Its rate is calculated for each type of emission and country, based on estimated parameter values. The resulting indicators reflect a balance between the positive influence of growth and negative influence of structural change and technological progress on emission levels. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.