Averting decision debacles

Half of the decisions made in organization fail, posing questions about the causes of failure and how to improve matters. My research shows that failure-prone decision-makers are victimized by three blunders: making premature commitments, spending time and money on the wrong things, and using failure-prone practices. The blunders create traps and the traps ensnare decision-makers to bring about failure. To dodge the traps, successful decision-makers were found to uncover hidden concerns, manage the social and political forces that can block them, identify desired results, search widely and encourage innovation, estimate benefits and the risks to realize them, voice ethical questions, and root out perverse incentives so learning can occur. Decision debacles drawn from Shell's disposal of the Brent Spar, Quaker's purchase of Snapple, and tax support for a sports arena are used to illustrate the blunders and traps, how they arise, and how to avoid them. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.