Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

被引：105

作者：

Heil, MT ^{[1
]}

Selden, TM

机构：

[1] US EPA, Indoor Environm Div, Washington, DC 20460 USA

[2] AHCPR, CCFS, Rockville, MD 20852 USA

来源：

ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS | 2001年 / 6卷

关键词：

D O I：

10.1017/S1355770X01000043

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model: Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the Larger structural models.

引用

页码：63 / 83

页数：21