Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

被引：367

作者：

Aerts, J. C. J. H. ^{[1
]}

Botzen, W. J. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Clarke, K. C. ^{[4
]}

Cutter, S. L. ^{[5
]}

Hall, J. W. ^{[6
]}

Merz, B. ^{[7
,8
]}

Michel-Kerjan, E. ^{[3
]}

Mysiak, J. ^{[9
,10
]}

Surminski, S. ^{[11
]}

Kunreuther, H. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[2] Univ Utrecht, Utrecht Univ Sch Econ USE, Utrecht, Netherlands

[3] Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Ctr Risk Management & Decis Proc, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA

[4] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[5] Univ South Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC USA

[6] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England

[7] German Res Ctr Geosci GFZ, Potsdam, Germany

[8] Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, Potsdam, Germany

[9] Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Lecce, Italy

[10] Univ Ca Foscari, Venice, Italy

[11] LSE, Houghton St, London, England

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2018年 / 8卷 / 03期

基金：

英国经济与社会研究理事会;

关键词：

SOCIAL VULNERABILITY; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MITIGATION MEASURES; PROSPECT-THEORY; ADAPTATION; COMMUNICATION; MANAGEMENT; RESILIENCE; STRATEGIES; INSURANCE;

D O I：

10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

引用

页码：193 / 199

页数：7

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