Statistical hindcast of wind climatology in the North Atlantic and northwestern European region

Monthly means of sea level air pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields are used as predictors to reconstruct an approximate climatology of wind and cyclonic activity, valid for 10 stations, in winter over the northern North Atlantic region throughout the 20th century. The reconstructed climatology is based an statistical relationships between these predictors and local observations at 10 synoptic stations during the period 1961 to 1987. The statistical relationships are identified by canonical correlation analysis combined with a cross validation technique. We apply double cross validation to independently verify the statistical model. An interpretation of the relationship between atmospheric circulation patterns and anomalies in the wind climatology and cyclonic activity is given. The historical climatology (1903 to 1987) for each observing station is obtained from the observed large-scale conditions by using the statistical relationships. It is found that within the present century both the monthly mean windiness and cyclonic activity show variations on the decadal time scale but no significant overall trends. This is confirmed for 2 of the stations for which directly observed pressure data were available since the beginning of the century.