A systems approach for the estimation of the effects of land consolidation projects (LCPs): a model and its application

Land consolidation projects (LCPs) are costly rural development actions that are often questioned. Integrated LCPs are geographically confined Land Rural Development Actions and their ex ante evaluation involves interdisciplinary research, in order to predict changes in farmers behaviour, patterns of land use and in crops and technologies used. A model that incorporates methods for the evaluation of the performance of the agricultural system before and after the transformations proposed in the project is presented. It is argued that the systems approach is the appropriate method to integrate each particular change and evaluate the global impact of every action included in the project. The model was applied to the Valenca-LCP in 1989, before project execution (Coelho, 1992 Analise de Projectos de Emparcelamento Rural. O case de Valenca do Minho. PhD thesis, UTL, ISA, Lisboa.). It evaluates each effect of the project (land, irrigation and drainage and road reconstruction) on a technical and social basis and estimates its economic impacts. The observed results used to evaluate model performance were obtained in 1995, after project implementation. The results from the comparison of model predictions (ex ante evaluation) with observations after LCP implementation (ex post evaluation) suggest that a multidisciplinary approach such as the one proposed here, supported by robust models, can be used as a reliable basis for the evaluation and decisionmaking process of LCPs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.