Multi-reference evaluation of uncertainty in earth orientation parameter measurements

Uncertainties in polar motion and length-of-day measurements are evaluated empirically using several data series from the space-geodetic techniques of the global positioning system (GPS), satellite laser ranging (SLR), and very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) during 1997-2002. In the evaluation procedure employed here, known as the three-corner hat (TCH) technique, the signal common to each series is eliminated by forming pair-wise differences between the series, thus requiring no assumed values for the "truth" signal. From the variances of the differenced series, the uncertainty of each series can be recovered when reasonable assumptions are made about the correlations between the series. In order to form the pair-wise differences, the series data must be given at the same epoch. All measurement data sets studied here were sampled at noon (UTC); except for the VLBI series, whose data are interpolated to noon and whose UT1 values are also numerically differentiated to obtain LOD. The numerical error introduced to the VLBI values by the interpolation and differentiation is shown to be comparable in magnitude to the values determined by the TCH method for the uncertainties of the VLBI series. The TCH estimates for the VLBI series are corrupted by such numerical errors mostly as a result of the relatively large data intervals. Of the remaining data sets studied here, it is found that the IGS Final combined series has the smallest polar motion and length-of-day uncertainties.