Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China

被引：200

作者：

Zhou, Xiao-Nong ^{[1
]}

Yang, Guo-Jing ^{[2
,3
]}

Yang, Kun ^{[1
,2
]}

Wang, Xian-Hong ^{[1
]}

Hong, Qing-Biao ^{[2
]}

Sun, Le-Ping ^{[2
]}

Malone, John B. ^{[4
]}

Kristensen, Thomas K. ^{[5
]}

Bergquist, N. Robert

Utzinger, Juerg ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Parasit Dis, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China

[2] Jiangsu Inst Parasit Dis, Dept Schistosomiasis Control, Wuxi 214064, Peoples R China

[3] Charles Darwin Coll, Sch Environm Res, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia

[4] Louisiana State Univ, Sch Vet Med, Dept Pathobiol Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA

[5] Univ Copenhagen, DBL Inst Hlth Res & Dev, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark

[6] Swiss Trop Inst, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland

来源：

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE | 2008年 / 78卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.4269/ajtmh.2008.78.188

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

引用

页码：188 / 194

页数：7

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