Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Southern Brazil:: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects

被引:236
作者
Peterson, AT [1 ]
Shaw, J
机构
[1] Univ Kansas, Museum Nat Hist, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA
[2] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Ciencias Biomed, Dept Parasitol, Sao Paulo, Brazil
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
leishmaniasis; climate change; ecological niche modelling; genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction; Leishmania; Lutzomyia;
D O I
10.1016/S0020-7519(03)00094-8
中图分类号
R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;
摘要
Geographic and ecological distributions of three Lutzomyia sand flies that are cutaneous leishmaniasis vectors in South America were analysed using ecological niche modelling. This new tool provides a large-scale perspective on species' geographic distributions, ecological and historical factors determining them, and their potential for change with expected environmental changes. As a first step, the ability of this technique to predict geographic distributions of the three species was tested statistically using two subsampling techniques: a random-selection technique that simulates 50% data density, and a quadrant-based technique that challenges the method to predict into broad unsampled regions. Predictivity under both test schemes was highly statistically significant. Visualisation of ecological niches provided insights into the ecological basis for distributional differences among species. Projections of potential geographic distributions across scenarios of global climate change suggested that only Lutzomyia whitmani is likely to be experiencing dramatic improvements in conditions in south-eastern Brazil, where cutaneous leishmaniasis appears to be re-emerging; Lutzomyia intermedia and Lutzomyia migonei may be seeing more subtle improvements in climatic conditions, but the implications are not straightforward. More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species. (C) 2003 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:919 / 931
页数:13
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