CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: A multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977-2007

This paper deals with the causal relationship analysis between Gross Domestic Product, Energy Intensity and CO2 emissions in Greece from 1977 to 2007, by means of Johansen cointegration tests and Granger-causality tests based on a multivariate Vector Error Correction Modeling. Results indicate that there is a set of uni-directional and bi-directional causalities among the selected time series. We performed a model Variance Decomposition Analysis using Choleski technique and we provided a comparison with other studies. The findings of the study have significant policy implications for countries like Greece as the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth seems quite unlikely. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.