Investigating new technologies in a scenario context: description and application of an input-output method

The dynamic input-output model DIMITRI will be used for explorations of long-term scenarios on technology and demand. The model describes at a sectoral level the relationships between consumption, production and emissions. Technology per sector is described by the inputs from other sectors (represented by 10 coefficients) and capital, labour and emission coefficients. Since these coefficients are not stable over time, they have to be constructed for future years. This paper presents a methodology for projecting these coefficients for different scenarios. The methodology combines trend analysis with detailed information of specific technologies per sector, which differentiates between scenarios. The adjustment of coefficients influences model outcomes such as production and emissions. The paper outlines the methodology and presents the main outcomes for four scenarios for the period 2000-2030. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.