Projected change in heat waves over China using the PRECIS climate model

被引：20

作者：

Yang, Honglong ^{[1
,2
]}

Xu, Yinlong ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Lei ^{[2
]}

Pan, Jie ^{[1
]}

Li, Xia ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[2] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China

来源：

CLIMATE RESEARCH | 2010年 / 42卷 / 01期

关键词：

PRECIS; SRES A2; Heat waves; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; SUMMER; SIMULATIONS; ENSEMBLE; SCENARIO; IMPACTS; WEATHER; EVENTS; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.3354/cr00860

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

An analysis of the simulated distribution of present (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) heat waves in China from one run of a regional model (PRECIS) using the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario is presented. Results indicate that PRECIS simulates the spatial distribution of the extreme high tail of the probability density function of summer temperature in the present case compared to observations. In addition, the characterization of anticyclonic circulation anomalies with heat waves is well simulated by the model. The model projects that heat waves will be more intense, longer and more frequent, with distinct geographical patterns. Western northwest China and northeast China are projected to experience more heat waves than at present.

引用

页码：79 / 88

页数：10

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