Productivity in Chinese provincial agriculture

Technical change, technical efficiency and multifactor productivity indices are reported for a multiple-output, multiple-input production technology using Chinese provincial data for the 1979-95 period. Results show significant variation in productivity change from Tear to gear and province to province Using panel methods, we regress the three production indices on several factors important in explaining productivity changes. Decollectivisation in the early 1980s accounts for a significant expansion of the frontier, while rural industrialisation decreased agricultural productivity. Productivity is also sensitive to relative grain prices, to natural disasters such as flood and drought, and proximity of the provinces to coastal areas.