Automotive energy use and emissions control: a simulation model to analyse transport strategies for Indian metropolises

A transport simulation model is formulated to analyse energy use and emissions in meeting the travel requirements of the residents of four Indian metropolises, namely Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Bangalore, during the period 1990-2011. The model includes the following variables: travel demand, modal split, penetration of technologies, vehicle space per passenger, energy intensity and emission factors of CO, HC, NOx, SO2, TSP and Pb. The model illustrates the effect of two strategies, namely strengthening public transport and promoting cleaner and alternative fuels with improved technologies, on energy use and emissions. If both the strategies are implemented, energy worth 0.82 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) could be saved in 2010/2011, the breakdown of which is as follows: over 22% in Delhi (0.36 mtoe), 55% in Calcutta (0.19 mtoe), 15% in Mumbai (0.11 mtoe) and 24% in Bangalore (0.16 mtoe). The strategies could also reduce the emissions of CO, HC, TSP and Pb in these cities as follows: 28-75% for CO2 28-80% HC, 21-59% TSP and 31-83% Pb in 2010/2011. Reduction potential of SO2 emissions in Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai would be 24%, 46% and 27%, respectively, while in Bangalore this would increase by 5%. Reduction potential of NOx is 15% and 22% in Delhi and Mumbai, while in Calcutta and Bangalore this would increase by 12% and 16%, respectively. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.