Survival Analysis of Patients with High-Grade Gliomas Based on Data Mining of Imaging Variables

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prediction of prognosis in HGGs is poor in the majority of patients. Our aim was to test whether multivariate prediction models constructed by machine-learning methods provide a more accurate predictor of prognosis in HGGs than histopathologic classification. The prediction of survival was based on DTI and rCBV measurements as an adjunct to conventional imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The relationship of survival to 55 variables, including clinical parameters (age, sex), categoric or continuous tumor descriptors leg, tumor location, extent of resection, multi-focality, edema), and imaging characteristics in ROIs, was analyzed in a multivariate fashion by using data-mining techniques. A variable selection method was applied to identify the overall most important variables. The analysis was performed on 74 HGGs (18 anaplastic gliomas WHO grades III/IV and 56 GBMs or gliosarcomas WHO grades IV/IV). RESULTS: Five variables were identified as the most significant, including the extent of resection, mass effect, volume of enhancing tumor, maximum B0 intensity, and mean trace intensity in the nonenhancing/edematous region. These variables were used to construct a prediction model based on a J48 classification tree. The average classification accuracy, assessed by cross-validation, was 85.1%. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the constructed prediction model classified malignant gliomas in a manner that better correlates with clinical outcome than standard histopathology. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models based on data-mining algorithms can provide a more accurate predictor of prognosis in malignant gliomas than histopathologic classification alone.