Predicting future quantities of obsolete household appliances in Nanjing by a stock-based model

China has become one of the largest producers of obsolete household appliances (HAs) in the world. However, information on discarded HAs in China is deficient owing to the unavailability of reliable data. The estimation of future obsolete streams is a crucial issue for the establishment of efficient waste collection and recycling systems. The present study describes a prediction model to forecast future obsolete HAs on the basis of information of in-use stocks of HAs in households. The model was applied to a forecasting analysis of quantities of obsolete HAs from 2009 to 2050 in Nanjing, China. The results show that a total of about 76 million units (2.8 million tonnes) of obsolete HAs will be generated in Nanjing over the next 40 years. Discarded air conditioners, color TV sets, and personal computers will be the major contributors. The total discarded amount of major kinds of HAs will increase from nearly 1.0 million units in 2009 to a maximum of 2.1 million units in 2040, and then decrease slightly to 2.0 million units in 2050. Urban households will generate significantly more obsolete HAs (about 56 million units) than rural households, due to the difference in their HA possession levels. The results of this study should help the Nanjing municipality to develop the collection and recycling systems and facilities needed for the obsolete HAs generated in the future. From a methodological perspective, the stock-based model provides a suitable tool to predict the generation of discarded HAs in the future. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.