China's key role in climate protection

China is in the process of becoming the fourth main global player in the world economy, together with the US, the EU, and Japan. Due to an energy mix with 75% dependence on coal, a high energy intensity and low energy prices, it is, after the US, the world's second largest emitter of CO(2). China's recoverable fossil fuel reserves have a CO(2) emission potential of some 225 Ct (the current global CO(2) emission is about 22 Gt/yr). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, all of it would be released to the atmosphere by 2040. This emission may cause a significant disruption of the climate system, resulting in severe adverse climatic and ecological impacts on China and the world. To avoid this outcome, an equitable climate-protection strategy is introduced to explore an alternative energy/climate future. Using a macroeconomic approach, it is shown that under BAU conditions, the year 2100 emissions of CO(2) will increase above 1990 levels by 370 and 96% for China and the US, respectively. In contrast, for the climate-protection conditions required by the Climate Convention, CO(2) emissions must decrease by 36% for China and by 90% for the US below 1990 levels. Using a microeconomic-engineering approach, the total CO(2) reduction potential is found to be about 3600 Mt for 13 specific measures over a 10-yr period. The incremental costs range from US$ 0.09 to 18.55 per ton of CO(2) reduction for coal-saving stoves and solar cookers, respectively. The total reduction costs for China would be about US$ 2 billion per year or similar to 0.4% of the 1994 GDP of China. This estimate does not allow for benefits from saved resources and avoided damages. We conclude with a discussion of various avenues for obtaining needed technological and financial support for China. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.